Thursday, May 1, 2014

Berne Union Statistics 2008 – 2013

On April 14, 2014, the Berne Union has published new figures of the ECA industry. Here are some highlights:

New ECA Business

Between 2009 and 2013, new ECA business has increased by 39 %. This increase is mainly due to ECA's short term business, whose portion in the business mix increased by 4 % over the same period, to reach 86 % in 2013.

The 2013 ECA business included 86 % short-term, 9 % medium/long-term and 5 % investment insurance. Since 2008, this distribution did not change significantly.

51 % of ECA's new investment business was concentrated in the top ten countries. This concentration is less important for medium/long-term business, i.e. 38 %.

In 2013, a big chunk of new ECA investment business took place in Kazakhstan, China, and Russia. The United States, Vietnam, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia were the leading countries in the medium/long-term segment.

ECA Exposure

Since 2009, ECA exposure has increased by 36 %. This increase is essentially due to an increasing short-term business, whose portion of ECA exposure increased from 51 % to 53 %.

Today's ECA exposure consists of 53 % short-term, 35 % medium/long-term, and 12 % investment business. Overall, this distribution remained stable over time.

Countrywise, half of today's ECA investment exposure is concentrated on top ten countries (namely Russia and China). For the medium/long-term and short-term business, the figures are 37 % and 56 % respectively. In the medium/long-term, ECAs are heavily exposed to Russia, USA, and India. Main countries of the current short-term exposure are UK, USA, France, Germany, and Italy.

Paid ECA Claims

Compared to other ECA businesses, the portion of paid ECA investment claims is constantly low and never surpasses the 2010 level of 9 %. The medium/long-term business constantly represents the highest portion of paid ECA claims (between 55 % and 60 %).

In 2013, short-term claims account for 43 %, medium/long-term claims for 54 %, and investment claims for 3 % of paid ECA claims.

The 2009 figure represents clearly an outlier. Besides this figure, the 2008 – 2013 tendency is constantly increasing. Paid ECA claims almost doubled, from 2,337 MUSD in 2008 to 4,500 MUSD in 2013.

Paid ECA investment claims are highly concentrated on top ten countries; they represent 88 % of 2013 investment claims. Countries mostly concerned are Libya, Vietnam, Brazil, and Myanmar. Concentration is much less of an issue for medium/long-term claims (64 % in 2013, mostly assumed by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Ukraine) and short-term claims (45 % in 2013, mostly assumed by Italy, USA, Brazil, Spain, and Iran).

ECA Recoveries

ECA recoveries decreased heavily in 2010 (42 %). The decline is even more important over the period 2008 to 2010 (66 %).

The major portion (82 %) of ECA recoveries is on medium/long-term claims. Recoveries of short-term and investment claims play only minor roles (15 % and 3 % respectively).

2013 investment recoveries are, at 99 %, concentrated on top ten countries (mainly, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Nigeria). Concentration is significantly lower for medium/long-term (78 % - mainly Egypt, Indonesia, and Iraq) and short-term recoveries (46 % - mainly Iran).


Berne Union Statistics 2008-2013

The whole workbook of visualizations is available here.